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  • When the probability of each event is not even, such as with a loaded die, a number which has come up more often in the past may very well continue to do so, if that number is favored by the weighting of the dice. This has been dubbed Nerd's Gullibility Fallacy -- assuming the coin indeed is fair and the gamblers are honest when it isn't the case. This is an example of Hume's principle: twenty times tails on row implies that it is far more likely that the premise of a fair coin is wrong and coin is forged, than that the initial premise is correct and the next toss will be fifty-fifty heads or tails. The history of poker is a matter of some debate. The name of the game likely descended from the French poque, which descended from the German pochen ('to knock'), but it is not clear whether the origins of poker itself lie with the games bearing those names. It closely resembles the Persian game of as nas, and may have been taught to French settlers in New Orleans by Persian sailors. It is commonly regarded as sharing ancestry with the Renaissance game of primero and the French brelan. The English game brag (earlier bragg) clearly descended from brelan and incorporated bluffing (though the concept was known in other games by that time). It is quite possible that all of these earlier games influenced the development of poker as it exists now. This is the fallacious step in the argument. If the coin is fair, then by definition the probability of tails must always be .5, never more (or less), and the probability of heads must always be .5, never less (or more). While a run of five heads is only 1 in 32 (0.03125), it is 1 in 32 before the coin is first tossed. After the first four tosses the results are no longer unknown, so they don't count. The probability of five consecutive heads is the same as four successive heads followed by one tails. Tails is no more likely. Each of the two possible outcomes has equal probability no matter how many times the coin has been flipped previously and no matter what the result. Reasoning that it is more likely that the next toss will be a tail than a head due to the past tosses is the fallacy. The fallacy is the idea that a run of luck in the past somehow influences the odds of a bet in the future. Mac users usually have it easier than PC users -- There are almost no viruses or spyware to worry about, important software and hardware is built right into the computer, and Mac-compatible online casino: Bodog [edit] The dealer places before him the amount he is disposed to risk, and the players "make their stakes." Any punter, beginning with the player on the immediate right of the dealer, is entitled to say "Banco", meaning to "go bank," to play against the whole of the banker's stake. If no one does so, each player places his stake before him. If the total so staked by the seated players is not equal to the amount for the time being in the bank, other persons standing round may stake in addition. If it is more than equal to the amount in the bank, the punters nearest in order to the banker have the preference up to such amount, the banker having the right to decline any stake in excess of that limit. Casino games
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